India on alert as danger of migration of Rohingya Muslims from Bangladesh…., rebel Arakan Army in Myanmar is…

Myanmar’s internal situation has worsened significantly over the past two weeks, particularly in the Rakhine State. According to media reports, the junta-led military government is losing ground, while the rebel Arakan Army is consolidating its hold. This instability is creating ripples along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, raising fears of a fresh wave of Rohingya refugees attempting to flee the region. India is closely monitoring the developments.

Risk of refugee influx into India

Reports suggest that India is maintaining open communication channels with all stakeholders in Myanmar, including the junta government and rebel factions. However, the rapidly changing circumstances pose multiple challenges for India, the most pressing being the potential movement of Rohingya refugee groups toward its borders.

India’s vigilance on Myanmar’s situation

Another significant concern for India is that the instability in Myanmar could be exploited by anti-India elements attempting to establish a foothold in border states like Mizoram and Manipur. Commenting on the situation, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated, “We are keeping a close watch on the developments in Myanmar.

“Our position is that all stakeholders in Myanmar should engage in dialogue and constructive discussions to restore peace and democracy at the earliest. The resolution to Myanmar’s crisis must be Myanmar-led and decided by its citizens. The state of our shared borders with Myanmar is a particular concern for us.”

Active diplomatic channels

Although the MEA’s public stance is measured, internally, the ministry has taken the situation very seriously, activating other diplomatic channels. India’s security agencies have been warning the government about the implications of Myanmar’s deteriorating condition for some time.

Risk of advanced weapons in Northeast India

Security agencies have flagged concerns that advanced weaponry reaching Myanmar’s rebel groups could end up in the hands of terrorist organizations operating in India’s northeastern states. Additionally, there are reports of Myanmar’s rebel groups increasing drug trafficking activities to raise funds, which is another major concern for India.

Growing rebel dominance

Last week, on December 19 and 20, a critical meeting of Myanmar’s neighboring countries took place in Bangkok to discuss the ongoing crisis. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri represented India at the meeting. Sources indicate that all participating nations, including India, emphasized the need for dialogue between Myanmar’s government and rebel factions.

During the meeting, Myanmar’s foreign minister representing the military government promised elections next year. However, with rebel groups controlling a significant portion of the country, skepticism about this promise remains high.

As per the latest reports, rebel forces have taken control of approximately 45 out of 70 towns in the Rakhine State. Despite China-backed efforts by the junta government to reclaim lost territory, the influence of rebel forces continues to grow steadily.